The Singularity: On the Horizon

Suzann Kale asked:

First we had cave people discovering fire. That was a technological advance, along with the invention of tools, and then the wheel. You had the printing press. That was major. But bigger leaps were to come: from Galileo, daVinci, and other great scientific thinkers; from the Industrial Revolution to Marconi (radio science) and Rosalind Franklin (main researcher of the DNA double helix).

With each advance, the knowledge curve turns up. Sometimes it plateaus for a while, but it never turns down. With the computer age, this curve has reached a rate of rise that exceeds anything in the past. That’s where we are right now.

What happens when, say, 30 to 50 years from now, that curve reaches a rate of rise that is indistinguishable from straight up? The answer is: no one knows.

And that’s the Singularity.

Many predict the coming of the Singularity, but no one can predict specifics. What does the Singularity mean to the human race? Will we be made up of computer parts, like the Bionic Man? Will artificial intelligence be sentient, like the Cylons in Battlestar Galactica? Will clones be running around, applying for drivers’ licenses? Will we even recognize ourselves?

Even Vernor Vinge, the professor and author who coined the phrase the Singularity, does not know what will happen when we reach it. But he has written several detailed novels and scientific papers about the event and various pathways through it.

From the interview abstract with Vinge at IT Conversations, Vinge says: Based on raw hardware trends, it’s plausible that within thirty years we will create superhuman intelligence — and so pass through a technological singularity. This is a different form of change than imagined by futurisms past. In fact, to think that we can predict beyond this singularity is a bit like expecting a goldfish to understand AC2005.

Vinge says there are two ways the Singularity could happen: the good way or the bad way. The good way is what he calls a soft takeoff, with the transition (the curve of the time-line) happening over many years. This would give humans a period of adjustment, a time to ponder ethical ramifications, and the ability to take preventative action against any misuse of advanced technology.

But the transition could take less than 100 hours, Vinge continues. Such a hard takeoff is almost certainly a Very Bad Thing.

In his book THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR: When Humans Transcend Biology, scientist Ray Kurzweil takes an optimistic stance. Some of the things we might see in the Singularity: death becomes curable; hunger and disease will completely disappear; humans and machines become one; nano computer chips can be implanted in our brains or other body parts, allowing us to think trillions of times faster than we do now; and who knows – we’ll probably be able to order Tea, Earl Gray, hot from the replicator like Captain Picard. Nanofactories will create material products quickly and inexpensively.

But both Vinge and Kurzweil also know that the Singularity could bring about a world that today would be unrecognizable. Author and engineer John Burch, on his website NanoFuture2030, is positive about the upcoming experience. He says: The impulse to contribute something to society in exchange for what may be only a meaningful relationship with a group of users is a beautiful thing to see. And I believe that will continue as the tools become more powerful.

Action items for us mortals:

√ Become science literate and keep up-to-date.

√ Get the best possible science education for your children and grandchildren.

√ Be aware and active in various legislations that you think are important.

√ Spread kindness and compassion wherever you go, thereby setting the stage for a Singularity that is exciting, beneficial, ethical, and responsible.

Notes:

The Bionic Man was produced by Kenneth Johnson

Battlestar Galactica was originally created by Glen A. Larson

Vernor Vinge is a PhD in mathematics, has been a professor at San Diego State University – and is a best-selling science fiction author.

Captain Picard is from Star Trek: The Next Generation and was created by Gene Roddenberry

IT Conversations main page is at www.itconversations.com

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